https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans
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Tech
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There are only two things you can say with certainty about token prices: we’re in a supply crunch, and this is unstable. All of the variables are in play, and the market will get shaken out over the next few years to arrive at a new equilibrium. Right now we have a lot of frantic analysis of ‘time to power’, but question at the end of that is whether the foundation models have sustainable pricing power, strategic leverage and value capture, or whether they become low-margin commodity…
It would be really nice if we had some way to analyse which jobs, companies and industries were exposed to AI, and if we could assign scores, and build charts, and map that against the progress of large language models. We know, in principle, that like every other big wave of technology, AI is bound to destroy some jobs and create others. But which ones? In the last three years a bunch of people have been very busy crunching census data, making tables and building viral charts. I think this is…
OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn’t have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with limited engagement and stickiness and no network effect. The incumbents have matched the tech and are leveraging their product and distribution. And a lot of the value and leverage will come from new experiences that haven’t been invented yet, and it can’t invent all of those itself. What’s the plan?
