Predicting AI job exposure

It would be really nice if we had some way to analyse which jobs, companies and industries were exposed to AI, and if we could assign scores, and build charts, and map that against the progress of large language models. We know, in principle, that like every other big wave of technology, AI is bound to destroy some jobs and create others. But which ones? In the last three years a bunch of people have been very busy crunching census data, making tables and building viral charts. I think this is mostly impossible: I think this is an exercise in predicting something that cannot be predicted. The simplest way to see the problem is to back-test this against other big technology shifts in the past. Some of the industries that should have suffered most ended up much bigger, and some of the industries that did suffer most should have been immune. Hence, we spent a century automating accounting: we built calculating machines, punch cards, mainframes, data processing, databases, PCs,…