What's Easy Now? What's Hard Now?

What’s Easy Now? What’s Hard Now? This is the fourth in a series about how AI is changing software development, after It’s time to be right., What about juniors?, and My heuristics are wrong. What now?. It stands alone, but if you found this interesting you may also find those interesting. I’ve been spending a lot of time thinking about the shape of the capabilities of coding agents. What they’re good at now, what they’re going to be good at. What they’re bad at now, how much of that is inherent and how much is transient. This is worth thinking about, because it’s the most important question shaping the future of software, and of software engineering. I don’t pretend to have an answer, but am coming to a conclusion that may be deeply counter-intuitive. Coding agents are becoming very good indeed, and can build meaningful and correct software very quickly and at transformatively low cost. They have super-human abilities on some coding tasks. Of course, computer systems have had super…