Investing at the Edge of Knowledge, Part 1 David Ricardo made a fortune buying British government bonds four days before the Battle of Waterloo. He was not a military analyst. He had no basis to compute the odds of Napoleon’s defeat, or victory, or any of the ambiguous outcomes in between. But he understood something that most of his contemporaries did not: the nature of his own ignorance was the same as everyone else’s, the seller was desperate, competition was thin, and the pounds he’d gain...
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