Yes, we can predict the future (with a certain probability)

Ever since I got into marketing or more concretely—driving users to my own online projects—I have started to notice a fascinating thing: that it is possible to predict how many visitors or leads you will have in the future. To me it is fascinating because I am used to rigid technical systems and that they are deterministic. You run it — you get the same result every time (or an error). With people it always seemed to be unattainable. How can I possibly predict what other people would do? Turns out you can, if the sample size is big enough. And it shouldn’t be even that big, really. A concrete example: say I get ten thousand of views on Google every month. Out of those I get about 100 clicks — 100 potential customers. Out of those 100 customers, 30% fill out the form since they are interested (they clicked the link already). That’s 30 leads. Now let’s say that on average (make note of this!) out of those 30 leads 2 of them get onboarded. That is 2 / 30 = 6,67% chance. And thats it,…