Dwarkesh updates: ASI in a few years

The AI/AGI/ASI commentariat on social media is rife with bloviating pontificators, but there are a few who are neither (bloviators or pontificators) who really know what they're talking about AND have a knack for explaining things to reasonably well-read normies like me. Of those, one I have listened to most closely over the past several years since late 2022 is Dwarkesh Patel, who combines a practice of thorough, rigorous research with connections to actual AI research scientists in coming up with his dense but approachable analyses on the state of the field. His latest essay — both on video and in 'print' — is a particularly sharp exemplar of the Dwarkesh œuvre, and the fact that it shows how his thinking has changed makes it immensely valuable as a developmental artifact (writ small) of the AI era (writ large). The fact that Dwarkesh's video essay got more than 350K views on YouTube within a few hours of his posting it says a great deal about the quality of his work, as well as its…

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