On Close Elections

Closely contested elections are the cause of a lot of fighting among partisans. Let’s see what it would mean to have that fight in as objective, statistically principled manner as possible. We’ll use the currently still-contested Mississippi election for US Senator as an example. The Mississippi Election for US Senator One of the ways I react to stress is by over-analyzing things, just to be as certain as I can be that I haven’t overlooked anything. Today I’m worrying about the last couple Senate elections yet to be called. Mississippi is, to put it mildly, a very red state. It is almost the archetype of southern US states: venomous racism in its history (and its present), fanatical conservative Republicans, endless voter suppression (with a history of actually murderous intimidation of Black voters), anti-education, and relatively poor. It is therefore notable that this race, among 3 politicians, involves 1 White Republican woman 2 Black men (1 Democrat and 1 independent but former…

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