The daily view 11/9/2026: Polymarket, Midterms, Stock Market Crash, AI & Job Loss, Jensen Huang

Item 1: Polymarket. I didn’t place any Polymarket or other bets on the midterms. I only stick to betting against the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal” or “mention markets” (against Trump mentioning crypto). Those are the only things I trade, because I have an actual edge. I don’t trade things where I have no information advantage or insufficient confidence. So far this has gone really well, and I’m up 400-500% on those contracts in a little over 4 months: This was the easiest payday ever—all predicted here well in advance, in April-July. People actually assigned a 90% chance of the strait traffic returning to normal. Now it’s at 10%. The post-midterms crash-out continues. A reminder of how pointless the midterm convention was. The GOP got to show in primetime how tone-deaf it was to the public’s concerns. The only thing to come out of it was a false promise of $5k if they won. That was quickly forgotten after a week, despite influencers praising it as a brilliant idea. —…

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