Natural Probabilities

"what is the probability of finding such a test exposure in nature?" Public Domain figure from DOT/FAA/AR-00/30. Introduction A 28,000 nmi database is large enough to calculate meaningful probabilities, which Dr. Jeck termed Natural Probabilities. He also used the data to make the remarkable proposal of replacing the figures in Appendix C with distance and probability based ones. While this has not yet been adopted, some of his proposals have been adopted as supplements. Natural LWC Probabilities Dr. Jeck introduces the term "Natural LWC Probabilities" in the context of discussing analysis of flight test data in DOT/FAA/AR-00/30 1: 3.2 COMPARING WITH NATURAL LWC PROBABILITIES. One comparison that is not possible with Appendix C is the question of how common, or uncommon, was a particular test flight icing encounter? Or, how representative of nature is a particular icing wind tunnel exposure or computer …