A bad time to be a prognosticator

Early Sunday afternoon at LGM. If today’s election in Serbia offers potential grounds for optimism, Brazil should take care of that. The main thing to add to the first round post is that the first round result was better than expected for Bolsonaro, and we should probably adjust our priors from “tossup, maybe ever so slight lean to Lula” to “Bolsonaro is the clear favorite.” His 2 point victory was a surprise, as Lula was expected to win the first round, with Bolsonaro expected to pick up a majority of minor candidate supporters. Post election polling has been tight but pretty consistent; the last 5 published polls all had Bolsonaro up by 1%; polling aggregators show the composite result as about a 1.5% Bolsonaro lead. So Lula supporters have to root for a fairly modest polling error, but it would need to be a polling error in the opposite direction of round one’s polling error. Possible! Not particularly likely. Gambling community sees Bolsonaro as a ~4-1 favorite which seems about…