Most Improbable Agent of You

It is commonly said that AI today is the worst it will ever be. This is true. AI today is probably the most centralized it will ever be as well. Currently the most reliable way we know how to make AIs smarter is to make them bigger. This principle is called the scaling law. To improve the current best AIs, which are transformer neural nets, we need to increase the scale of their training data, the scale of their compute, and the scale of their inference, or delivery. That scaling results in massive computer processing centers, running millions of chips, with trillions of parameters, powered by gigawatts of energy, costing tens of billions of dollars. Very few can afford this scale of system, so this AI power is concentrated into a very few organizations. On the other hand, each one of us runs a very powerful (better than most AIs), very tiny (big as your skull), very energy efficient supercomputer running only on 25 watts at the end of our necks. There are some 8 billion of these tiny…