How the AI boom might really end: 5 scenarios

With the Anthropic IPO gathering pace - and chip stocks just posting their longest losing streak since 2008 amid worries about AI debt, I thought it'd be worth writing up some of my thoughts I've put together while thinking through what may happen. By no means is this meant to be exhaustive - just a list of what I think is the most interesting to think through. Before I dive into the scenarios, while I'm sure there are going to be failures and mispricing of asset classes - like any huge investment wave - I think it's worth saying that unlike many bubbles there is an enormous amount of value being created. In essence, I think this is the first time capital can be turned into intelligence. You buy (or borrow money for) GPUs, you get tokens out which represent a growing share of professional service work. I'm certainly biased as a software engineer by trade - the models just get better and better at coding and it's humbling to see it do my previous tasks so quickly and increasingly…