AGI Prediction Update (2025-2028)

I said, I think in 2023, that we’d have AGI between 2025 and 2028, with 2027 being the most likely year.I still say 2027 for an AI product that can replace an average knowledge worker. And I think that’s the definition of AGI to use.Daniel Miessler on X (June 2025)The whole debate is very strange because so much depends on definitions, but I think we got AGI this year. In 2026. In the form of Claude Tag.Elaborating...Why do I consider that AGI?Because it’s persistent, organizational memory that can read anything and do anything inside the company. It can read all your emails, process all your meetings, write your documentation, keep your docs updated. It can do decent security assessments.But most importantly to my definition of being able to replace an average knowledge worker, you can simply tell it to figure out what Chris has been doing for the last year and a half since we hired him.And it can just go look at every single thing he’s done. Every meeting. Every email. Every Slack…