Eight + One Predictions for AI in 2030

I know we’re famously bad at predicting things, including recessions. So let’s treat these predictions for AI in 2030 as ideas I’ve pieced together from private conversations about where AI is going over the next 3–5 years. 1. AI models will become commodities We still argue about which lab is ahead: OpenAI versus Anthropic, Opus versus whatever just came out. Then we spend another week arguing about the benchmark. I expect most of that to disappear from the customer’s view. For ordinary work, several models will clear the required quality bar. The product will choose one, switch when something better or cheaper arrives, and carry on. People using it may never know which model did the work. I’ve written about this as the new rebar. Models remain useful after competitors reproduce their capabilities. A lab with a three-month lead may struggle to charge a premium for years. That’s why I’m skeptical that the labs will capture most of the value. Distribution, customer relationships,…