There Is No Evidence of Aggregate AI Job Loss

For nearly 4 years, the public has been told that generative artificial intelligence is an economic wrecking ball aimed directly at white-collar employment.The warning arrives from every respectable corner of modern commentary. When Jack Dorsey slashed 4,000 jobs at Block, he announced that artificial intelligence allowed the company to operate with half its staff, warning corporate America that any executive failing to execute similar cuts was late. When Bill Gates published a 6,000-word manifesto on algorithmic risk, he warned that entry-level knowledge jobs would disappear permanently, proposing that governments establish legally protected “human-reserved” jobs to shield desk workers from obsolescence. Management consultancies publish glossy forecasts predicting half of all corporate tasks will vanish by 2030, and editorial boards treat every corporate restructuring as the opening bell of an algorithmic wipeout.Listening to this drumbeat, one would assume corporate redundancy…