Colombia 2026: Scoring the Falsification Matrix

Post-mortem of “Colombia 2026 Election: Falsification Matrix” (registered 2026-01-26,building on “A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting,”2026-01-17). Scored 2026-08-18 against the matrix’s own pre-registered thresholds.Mechanical resolution first; interpretation separated and marked. Resolution data First round, May 31, 2026 (turnout 57.89%): Candidate%Abelardo de la Espriella (ind.)43.75Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact)40.90Paloma Valencia (Democratic Centre)6.92Sergio Fajardo (Dignity & Commitment)4.26Claudia López (ind.)0.95All others + blank3.22 Runoff, June 21, 2026 (turnout 63.60%): De la Espriella 49.66%, Cepeda 48.70% —margin 0.96 points, ~252,000 votes of ~26 million. March 8 Gran Consulta: Valencia 3,236,286 votes; Oviedo 1,255,510 (second);primary participation therefore ≥4.49M. Sources: Registraduría results as compiled by Wikipedia(2026 Colombian presidential election);AS/COA runoff analysis. Row-level scoring (the matrix’s own thresholds)…