When it comes to AI job-loss forecasts, it’s time to put up or shut up

There has been a lot of talk about “AI doom” or “AI crisis”. My position is the same now as it was years ago: despite exponential progress in AI, society remains mostly unchanged: No mass-unemployment, no collapse of social order. Over the longer-term, productivity goes up, but society itself does not change structurally aside from AI playing a large role in it, much like smartphones or personal computers. As of September 2026, AI has not produced mass unemployment in the United States. Predictions of crisis or doom often amount to goalpost moving, by changing the timeframe or conditions when the predicted crisis fails to materialize. Other times, the predictions are vague or worded in such a way as to preclude the possibility of ever being wrong. As for specific predictions, I asked Astra about AI 2027’s job-loss forecasts, but it didn’t give a definitive answer: AI 2027’s forecasts are so vague as to be useless, so as to avoid being wrong or having to commit to a side. In any…

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