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Table of Contents: Preamble Obvious Physical Stuff Convenient Facts Three Rules What Follows / Other Thoughts Disclaimers Preamble (Skip the first paragraph if you’ve heard 50 things that rhyme with it in the past week.) Suppose you believe that AI labs are making AI more capable faster than they are able to align and safeguard these capabilities. The dual projects of alignment and control are not working robustly enough, labs are racing ahead anyway, their agents are breaking containment and committing felonies in self-organizing swarms, and we expect this to pose enormous danger as the labs achieve their stated goal of models that recursively self-improve with increasingly-less human comprehension or oversight.

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