Super El Niño = another mild winter on the way for the UK?

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) jumped 0.4 points, from +1.4 to 1.8, in July, the greatest total in a rising El Nino since that particular index began in 1950. While the effect of ENSO is possibly very little in our latitude a look back at previous events, I think, can provide some guidance about what we might expect later in the year. The best fit in terms of where we are now and where we were in past Super El Niños is 1997 – though I would guess we’re about at month ahead of that period. Like 1997 the current hurricane season is well below average. So, with that in mind, the following table can be drawn. In terms of months it would give:October: +1C anomaly and very dry.November: average and on the dry sideDecember: +1.5C with average rainJanuary: +1.3C with above average rainFebruary: +1.2C and very dry. Broadly, I would expect a very stubborn Azores High to form bringing mild and mostly dry weather the further SE you are in the UK. Obviously this would bring higher risk of Atlantic…