The daily view 9/10/2026 Polymarket huge Iran win, AI vs Writing, AI vs Math, and Hedging

So far I have been right about almost everything: Item #1: On Polymarket, the odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening has plunged even more. This has been of my most profitable trades ever in terms of ROI. The “no” contract surged from 18 to 84 cents in about 2.5 months, exceeding even many semiconductor stocks: I’ll probably take profits son or roll the contract out to a later date should one exist. The situation is totally obstructed. Peace talks or negotiations have not even been floated at this point. The realization has set in that this is Iraq again, with October 7th instead of 9/11 as the pretext, and it will be the job of Trump’s successor to clean it up. This was one of the most obvious trades ever. Even some of the presumably “smartest” people on Twitter failed to see this. I was the only one saying to buy the “no” contract and that it would not resolve. Just some ransom guy with a blog yet again turns out to be the best forecaster. I remember seeing tweets a month or two ago…