Drop Into Fall

LEDE ONTurns out that September 1 was an important day, as prices changed for many items starting deep in the supply chain all the way up to finished products. Not all these price changes have surfaced worldwide to consumers yet, but they will. In talking to sources on the semiconductor side, it’s a combination of CapEx (capital expenditures needed for expansion) along with the AI squeeze (the AI needs are sucking up more and more fab time) that are creating the biggest problems for everyone now, even huge companies that dominate some fab use, such as Apple and Qualcomm. I’ll point out that in past chip bubbles—yes, there have been several—the results on the other side are ugly: excess capacity and parts price drops that are challenging to navigate. As the bubble ends, a manufacturer can end up committing to a price only to find that their competitors waited and are paying far lower prices. You don’t just need bean counters these days, you need bean predictors to navigate the…