Adam Smith and probability: a recap

To set the stage for the last part of my survey on Adam Smith’s use of probability theory in The Wealth of Nations, which I will resume on Monday, August 31st, below are links to some of the ground we have covered thus far: Was Adam Smith a closet Bayesian?: Adam Smith uses the words “probability” and “probably” many times in his magnum opus. Adam Smith’s contributions to probability theory?: Following the lead of my colleague Michael Emmett Brady, I single out three passages in The Wealth of Nations where Smith applies the concept of probability to economic behavior. Adam Smith, Richard Price, and risk management: Smith anticipates the idea of “imprecise probabilities” in his description of the insurance business. (hat tip: Prof. Brady) Politics and probability: Amid his discussion of retaliatory tariffs, Smith makes an important insight: when we are trying to figure out what the probability of a given event is (e.g., the probability that policy X will work as intended), we also have…