GAO: One More Warning on US Federal Debt

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) offers a blunt title for its most recent review of US fiscal policy: “The Nation’s Fiscal Health — Urgent and Sustained Action Needed to Improve the Fiscal Outlook (June 2026). This figure shows the current-law projection of where US federal debt is headed, a projection built on the cheerful assumption that no new catastrophes like the Great Recession of 2008-09 or the COVID pandemic happen in the next 30 years or so. The reasons why are the world’s worst-kept secret. For decades now, it was apparent that the oversize baby boomer generation born in the two decades after WWII would be retiring about now. For decades now, it has been apparent that the US health care system is driving up costs faster than the overall growth of the economy. Put these together, and the table shows that Social Security is projected to account for a rising share of GDP in the next 30 years, as are federal health care outlays (Medicare, Medicaid, the health insurance…