Signs of recovery in comparative UK economic growth

I haven’t talked about recent UK macroeconomic data for some time, mainly because there hasn’t been any new story to tell. To recap, growth in the UK relative to other comparable countries was strong in the three decades before 2010, but then the UK entered a period of relative decline, exacerbated by Brexit. In addition the UK had a terrible pandemic, not just in terms of government policy and therefore deaths but also in terms of lost GDP. The economy bounced back as it did around the world, but the ground we lost in the pandemic relative to other G7 countries was never made up. Whether that is because of UK policy during the pandemic or the ongoing negative effects of Brexit is hard to tell. Below is a chart that ends at the end of 2023. [1] The UK was not the worst performer over this period, with both German and Japanese GDP at the end of 2023 hardly above average 2019 levels. But next worst was the UK, with GDP at the end of 2023 just 2.5% above its 2019 average, and above us…