Mon, Aug. 17 Electoral Vote Predictor

Starting today we will be tracking the Senate polls daily. Not to throw cold water on ourselves, but many of the key races will probably be close and announcing that (X) is ahead of (Y) by 2 ± 4 points is not terribly informative, but it is the best we can do. See the Map algorithm page. The one "tie" shown in the score is Nebraska, where Dan Osborn (I) is leading Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) because the official Democrat dropped out. We will indicate "independent leading" by scoring it as a tie and coloring the tied state purple. Today we have the Democrats' nightmare scenario. Mike Rogers (R) is leading Abdul El-Sayed (D) in Michigan. If the Democrats fail to get control of the Senate, which they would get if they win Michigan and all the other states go as on the map, the Party will tear itself to bits starting Nov. 4. We don't use every poll that is published. The reality that the media rarely discuss is that most pollsters work for campaigns. Commonly, they poll a state, run an ad…