July 2026 Links

U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information To Profit From Prediction Market Bets: Matt Levine had some interesting takes on this in his Money Stuff newsletter:There might be more abductions of foreign leaders? More wars? More stuff to bet on? More stuff, generally? More volatility; more unexpected events. The least likely outcome is, now, the most profitable: If you bet on an event at a 1% probability, and then cause it to happen, you will make 99 times your money. My overarching theory of current US policy is that everyone involved in the Trump administration basically loves creating volatility. If you’re in the business of creating forms of volatility that no one has ever imagined before, the simplest (not only!) way to monetize that is on prediction markets.Conversely, foreign leaders whom Donald Trump dislikes should probably be checking their removal probability on Polymarket every few minutes. If it suddenly jumps up, you’ll want to get to the bunker quick. It might…