Kalshification: Gambling On Anything And Everything

Kalshi and Polymarket are the big names in the new sector of "prediction markets", and other established names like Robinhood and Crypto.com are getting in on it too. They claim to be the most accurate way to predict future outcomes, but what are they really? They very specifically avoid the language of "bet" due to legal implications, but that gets closer to the heart of what is happening here. Are people really trading futures about who will be the presidential nominee in 2028, or would it be more truthful to say they're betting on who it'll be? Let's talk about what a future is, what these markets are, and how they work. P.S. Shout out to my friend Ty for some fact checking on economic topics, he's a numbers guy (i.e. has an Economics degree).