The Not-so-Fluid, Low-Hire, Low-Fire Economy

The US unemployment rate was 4.2% in June, which is low by historical levels. Nonetheless, lot of workers, and perhaps expecially young workers right out of college, are experiencing the US economy as a situation where it’s hard to get a job. For example, in the “The Job Market for Recent College Graduates,” I reviewed evidence that relative to other education groups, the unemployment rate for recent graduates is higher than usual, while in certain jobs, the job growth for those age 22-27 seems lower than usual. In “Are the Entry-Level Jobs Drying Up for Young Adults?” I discussed flows between unemployment, being out of the labor force, and taking a job. There’s are some bits of new evidence on each question. Bruce Fallick of the Cleveland Fed discusses “The `Low-hire, Low-fire’ Labor Market” (Economic Commentary 26-17, August 4, 2026). The green line on the graph shows the percent of new hires each month as a share of total employment; the maroon line shows the quit rate each month…