The AI Experts Who Couldn’t Predict AI

The article “A Taxonomy of Omnicidal Futures Involving Artificial Intelligence” went viral. It was co-authored by Jacob Tsimerman, who, as the media has made abundantly clear, is the 2026 Fields Medal recipient–as if that somehow adds credibility to the article or grants him immunity from criticism. Despite being published on arXiv, which has a focus on more technical content, it basically reads like a LessWrong post, and I’m not sure how it got past the moderators. It shows that name recognition can allow people to play by a different set of rules. Moreover, the fact that one of the authors has a Fields Medal is irrelevant if the arguments are unconvincing. As someone who reads a lot of content online, I encounter a lot of forecasts and opinions, particularly about technology and AI. I have found that credentials and fame are poor predictors of forecasting ability or policy efficacy. No one does it that well. Even I have missed many things. For example, former Stanford University…