Most Likely Future Filter: World Govt

The great filter (a term I coined) is all the things that block simple dead matter from evolving into an advanced civilization easily seen from far away. Given that we see a vast universe of simple dead matter (~10^24 planets) not so evolved, this filter must be enormous. A few years ago I helped worked out a better math model of it.A key question is: how much of this filter remains ahead of us. And my best guess is: a substantial amount. It is not a try-try type step like many prior hard steps, as that would take hundreds of millions of years. It is more of a try-once step, that we either pass or fail within a cosmically short time. And that filter is mainly: the risk of a stable restrictive world govt.For a long time, the world has seen increasing talk, travel, and trade, and as a result world culture has been merging, changing fast, becoming less adaptive, and more focused on moral outrage. State governance has increased in capacity, scope, scale, and centralization. The obvious…