The 2031 Crisis in Higher Education: a stark scenario

Greetings from a surprisingly pleasant late July. Smoke from Canada’s fires has dissipated and temperatures have dwindled to the 80s F. It’s actually delightful to be outside. Today’s post is about a scenario for higher ed’s future. It’s not from me, but created by one Matthew F. Wilson, director of Research Translation and AI Strategy at Baylor’s Institute for Global Human Flourishing. “The 2031 Crisis in Higher Education” is a dark one, imagining an accelerating decline for American colleges and universities. Some of the scenario’s details will be familiar to my readers, starting with demographic effects. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act plays a role by cutting loans (and therefore enrollment) while also threatening academic programs without good ROI. State funding to public universities declines again, while demand for skilled trades rises. Wilson’s scenario adds some more details. I was struck by his imagining that professional schools collapse, mostly due to AI, and with them their…