51 minutes ago · Life · hide · 0 comments

Derek Lowe is scandalized by the fact that 9 out of 10 drugs that get to a first-in-human trial don’t get approval or, to use some jargon, a clinical failure rate (CFR) of 91% per year. He quotes a recent paper which followed CFR over the last six decades ⊕ [Note: Just to make things confusing, the paper itself calls this percentage “clinical attrition” but Lowe rebrands it to a CFR. Let’s for the sake of consistency stick with the latter, although a pedant may question whether that statistic truly is a rate. ] and noted that it was improved somewhat in the 1970s and 1980s — down to about 80% — but was consistently at or above 88% in every other decade analyzed. Both the paper and Lowe present this as a Bad Thing. Here is a direct quote from Lowe: But let’s think about that 91% failure rate for a moment. When I bring this up in presentations, I invite the audience to consider what the auto industry would look like if 91% of new car designs proved unable to roll out of the factory, or…

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