NISQ and quantum supremacy did not fail

A week ago, a philosopher named Amit Hagar put out a preprint entitled The NISQ Trap: Eight Years of Demonstrations the Hardware was Built to Lose. Here’s the abstract: With a single clear exception, every NISQ-era flagship demonstration of ‘quantum advantage’ has, within eighteen months of its announcement, been classically reproduced, shown to rest on classically tractable structure, or closed by a simulability theorem. Six theoretical results from 2024 through April 2026 explain the pattern: the regions of circuit-space NISQ hardware can run with sufficient fidelity coincide with the regions classical algorithms compress efficiently, because the features that admit one (low effective depth, strong algebraic structure, geometric locality) are the features that admit the other. This reading dates the NISQ programme from its 2018 articulation as an interim retreat from the unmet conditions of the 1996 threshold theorems, characterises the eight years that followed as a closed loop in…