Feedback Latency, Learning & “Productivity”

Six teams are given a goal – to guess a random 6-digit number. Each team gets feedback on their guesses at different stages. Team A gets feedback immediately after they guess a single digit. Team F gets feedback after guessing all 6 digits. The feedback is a simple “Right” or “Wrong”. We can visualise their guesses as a decision tree. Team A might guess the random number starts with 7. Team B might guess it starts with 6-4. Team C might guess it starts with 2-1-0. Start│├── Team A│ └── 7│├── Team B│ └── 6│ └── 4│└── Team C └── 2 └── 1 └── 0 Each sequence of guessed digits represents a branch of the decision tree. Team A learns that the first number isn’t 7. Team B learns that 6-4 aren’t the first two digits. Team C learns that 2-1-0 aren’t the first three digits. After Team A’s first guess, there are 900,000 remaining branches that could possibly be the random 6-digit number. Uncertainty about what the number is drops by 10% – all the branches that start with 7 are eliminated. After…