The Coherence Principle

Back into the swing of things in Maynooth, getting ready for the repeat examinations that start next month, I realized that I had forgotten to pass on an interesting paper that I found out about a few weeks ago but was reminded of while in London so I’m remedying my omission now. The title is The Coherence Principle: A Falsifiable Prior for Model Selection from the Grammar of Theories by Raul Jimenez, Carlos Peña Garay, Fergus Simpson, and Licia Verde. It addresses the issue of how to assign prior probabilities. We know how to do this in cases where the models concerned belong to a family differentiated by relatively simple parameters (as is the case in the standard cosmological framework), but for more complex differences the appropriate prior is difficult to choose. I see the paper as an attempt to extend the work of Ed Jaynes, though I’m not sure the authors see it quite in those terms! Here is the abstract: Bayesian model selection in cosmology and particle physics is often…