This Time Is Always Different

Over the last few centuries the world has seen many huge changes. Our rate of big changes became much higher than before, and for most such changes we can find a parameter (or combo) re which it represents unprecedented change. Furthermore most doomers have always been folks who welcomed some prior big changes, and who can justify their new wariness in terms of scenarios where huge losses seem possible.Doomers have often successfully blocked big changes, at least in some big region for a time, and that has on average gone quite badly for those regions. This is the main reason to be wary of blocking such changes. Even though, yes, each one probably does risk inducing huge losses. To be willing to resist a particular change then, I need concrete reasons to expect it to be unusually bad, relative to this prior track record.Yes, I do now see our world as going bad due to too many big cultural changes, and other changes that induced such changes. But I don’t see much prospects of usefully…