The Daily View 7/11/2026: Superforecasters , Iran, and AI & Cheating in College

Item #1. From Scott, “The AI Superforecasters Are Here” He writes: You, personally, should not play the prediction markets in the AI future. You’ll be competing against smarter-than-top-human superforecasters that can spend subjective weeks cogitating on every single question, and you will definitely lose. To the contrary, it would actually be easier, at least initially. You can just copy the forecasters’ trades. This would work until it’s arbitraged-away. I think the superforecasting concept sorta outlived its usefulness. There was a lot of hype about this from 2015-2020 after being popularized by Philip E. Tetlock, garnering books and mentions on podcasts, but a decade later, not much has come out of it. I have yet to see much evidence anyone can make correct predictions consistently for practical or actionable matters, like stock market performance or which sectors will lead and so on. It’s like,” tell me which sectors will lead next year. and the following year. ” Repeated enough…