I Think AGI Just Happened

I think we just saw the birth of AGI, and it's from the most unexpected place. At least for me.I think it arrived in the form of a product from Anthropic called Claude Tag.This doesn't mean I think Claude, more generally, is technically "AGI". It's hard to even know what that means. Everyone disagrees.My definition of AGI, which is what I think most of us actually care about, is just:An AI system that can replace an average knowledge worker.The "G" in AGI stands for generality, and there's wide disagreement on how measure that. But one thing we know requires lots of human-level-or-above generality is the chaos of knowledge work. Even the most basic knowledge work role is full of dozens or hundreds of random mini-tasks in the course of a day or week.So my thinking here is that if something has general enough intelligence to be a knowledge worker, that's a pretty solid standard for generality.In November 2023 I wrote Why We'll Have AGI by 2025-2028:My prediction is a 60% chance of AGI…