3 hours ago · Tech · hide · 0 comments

I just realized Claude Tag might be the AGI moment I've been talking about since 2023.No, that doesn't mean Claude generally is pure, technical "AGI". It's hard to even know what that means. Everyone disagrees.My definition of AGI, which is what I think we actually care about, is just:An AI system that can replace an average knowledge worker.The whole point of all this stuff is the impact it has on us humans, which is why I think this is the best definition.I've been calling this shot since 2023 In November 2023 I wrote Why We'll Have AGI by 2025-2028, and the prediction was specific:My prediction is a 60% chance of AGI in 2025 and a 90% of AGI in 2028.November 2023That post also had the definition I still use:An AI system capable of replacing a knowledge worker making the average salary in the United States.The argument for how we'd get there was systems, not components. We wouldn't need one magic model to be AGI by itself. A system of AIs working together toward a shared goal would…

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