Does the Black List find talent or launch it?

Since 2005, Franklin Leonard has run an annual survey of film industry insiders, asking for their favourite screenplays of the year that have not yet been made. The result, the Black List, has become one of the most watched documents in Hollywood. Get on it and, the story goes, your career changes.There are really two claims tangled up in that reputation. The first is that the list finds talent, i.e. it is very good at picking out the scripts and writers who matter. The second is that it makes careers, as in, simply being on the Black List actively lifts a writer who would otherwise have stalled. Those two things are not the same, so let’s test each in turn.First, just how well do these scripts do?Start with the scripts themselves. Of the 1,901 screenplays listed between 2005 and 2025, 576 have been made into films, and together they have grossed over $31bn worldwide at the box office. That includes 103 films that grossed more than $100m each. Four Black Listed scripts have won Best…