Even If We Could Extend The Horizons of Autonomous Coding Agents, Does That Mean We Should?

Thinking about the horizon of autonomous agentic workflows. I visualise them as sequences of decisions that are dependent. If decision D1 is correct, D2 is more likely to be correct. If D1 is wrong, then D2 is more likely to be wrong, too. Errors propagate and compound down the sequence. How many decisions can an agent make before the probability of an error-free end result drops off a cliff? There are two factors here I’m considering: 1. The probability a decision is correct, P 2. The probability that an error will be caught before it propagates and compounds, C The reliability of a decision in the sequence, R – the probability that a decision will be correct, or if it isn’t, the error will be caught before it propagates – would then be: R = 1 – (1 – P)(1 – C) If R = 0.99 (99% reliable), then the odds of an error-free result after 10 decisions – like, say, a few lines of code generated – are 90%. After 100, they’re just 37%. And after 1,000, they’re a miniscule 0.004%. Physics…