2 hours ago · Politics · 0 comments

A seller-side report from the vote market. Yesterday’s essay reconstructed the vote market from its transaction records — responsiveness regressions, the forty-year evangelical purchase, the post-1998 European repricing. Transaction records have a blind spot: they show what cleared, not what it felt like to be the commodity. Between November 2025 and April 2026, Pew Research Center’s political typology fieldwork (N=10,357, with two follow-up waves) effectively surveyed the sellers. Read against the market model, the topline is not a mood study. It is the price schedule, reported from below — and in one place it corrects yesterday’s argument. The Folk Model Is Already Correct Yesterday’s information hypothesis — held deliberately at Tier 3 — proposed that votes stay cheap partly because the event-driven information regime denies voters the structural model needed to price them. The survey complicates this in the most useful way: the sellers’ folk model of the market turns out to be…

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