Last week I ended this newsletter questioning if the people inside the labs actually see the same end-of-cycle signals the rest of us are reading from the outside, or are they rushing their IPOs because they can see something coming that the market hasn’t priced in yet.This week, Anthropic offered something resembling an answer, at least from a technical standpoint. Fable is here, and it reinforces my argument from last week: model technical capabilities are not actually plateauing and the winter will come from a shortage of funds and adoption.What Fable actually is…Fable 5 is the first model in Anthropic’s new Claude 5 family, specifically the first model in a new tier they’re calling Mythos-class (whatever that means), which sits above Opus in capability. The key thing to understand about the release is that Fable 5 and Mythos 5 are essentially the same underlying model. The difference in Fable is not its underlying architecture, but its embedded guardrails.On benchmarks, Fable tops…
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