Marina Favaro and Jack Clark, in a very long article on Anthropic’s website: The technical trends discussed in this piece suggest that AI systems are going to become much more capable in coming years. These trends have huge implications. AI that can build itself would be a major development in the history of technology—one that could bring enormous good for the world in science, healthcare, and beyond. But full recursive self-improvement also might increase the risks of humans losing control over AI systems. If systems are capable of fully building their own successors, the ways we secure them, monitor them, and shape their behavior all grow much more important. Then, scrolling waaaaaaay down, they lay out three possible futures that could play out as AI systems become better and faster than humans, especially at coding tasks: The trend stalls, but today’s AI capabilities are widely diffused. AI labs continue to see compounding efficiency gains. AI systems themselves become capable of…
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