Why human behavior is not as unpredictable/random as assumed

It’s commonly assumed that forecasting–especially as it pertains to economics, geopolitics, or finance–ranges from hard to impossible, owing to the claimed unpredictability of human behavior. You’ll often see books, articles, and TED talks by “experts” about how people act unpredictably or irrationally, so one may be inclined to think it’s hopeless trying to make predictions. I have never bought into this, and my own success at forecasting and applying it to investing, runs counter to this notion. Given the replication crisis, why should anyone trust these “pop psychologists” who insist it’s random, seriously? Their credibility is shot. Here is what I correctly predicted for 2025-2026 alone (although some of these are redundant): -No mass job loss due to AI (the vast majority of jobs, especially having to to with interacting with humans, are hard to automate) -No AI bubble/collapse. Private valuations of leading AI companies keep rising (AI bubble predictions have been flat wrong for…