It's the Differential Turnout, Stupid

How should we judge the performance of our political parties in the aftermath of the Scottish Parliamentary, the Welsh Senedd, and English local elections? The leadership hopefuls are circling Keir Starmer, while Nigel Farage has promised something spectacular will befall Reform on Thursday. What counts as disaster? What amounts to triumph? Starting with Labour, Keir Starmer set the bar pretty low in 2025. Labour lost 187 councillors in the context of a projected vote share of 20% - the lowest since the party emerged as an electoral force 120-odd years ago. Readers with memories might also recall Labour's 2021 election outing, where projected share stood at 29%, with 327 councillors and Labour's control of eight councils lost. It has since come out in sundry memoirs and insider accounts that Starmer seriously considered resigning because he thought this result was so bad. Unfortunately for him, Labour are now on course to do much worse than this. In historical context, in relatively…