AI Thoughts

Posted on March 4, 2026 Bear cases Every other podcast these days is talking up the wonders of AI and how it is just a matter of time before everything radically changes. Meanwhile, as soon as I peel my eyes and ears away from my phone and look outside the window, I see that really nothing has changed. The singularity, where and whenever it is, isn’t here yet. As a fun intellectual exercise, I thought I’d think through some bear cases for AI companies. Model Stagnation. If models...