What I Learned about Hyperscalers’ AI Spend

The four biggest hyperscalers reported earnings this week. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet collectively told investors they will spend roughly $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026. That is nearly double what they spent in 2025. Three of the four raised capex guidance during this week of reporting. Only Amazon held its number, and only because it had already published a $200 billion forecast in February 2026. Some of the bump in capex is coming from rising component prices. Microsoft said roughly $25 billion of its $190 billion 2026 capex is component price inflation. The rest of us measure inflation by what gas costs at the pump. The hyperscalers measure it in billions of dollars of chip and component price increases. Psst. Did you know that the visible capex line tells a partial story? There is a reason no one wants to talk about forward commitments, or about lease obligations that have been signed but sit off the balance sheet. Or about the circular economy now running…