2 hours ago · Tech · 0 comments

Not sure why I haven't thought more about this, but it seems like the US now has a massive economic vulnerability from cheap, high-quality, open source AI combined with cheap inference (See Cerberus, et al).Here's the scenario:US labs get people and companies hooked on top-tier inference ✅The entire US economy re-orients to center around like 5 companiesTheir valuations keep growing while stealing the oxygen out of everything else ✅The open source models start getting pretty good, and they get used a lot, but they're still like 5-10% behind the frontier models ✅And then all of a sudden, in 2026, 2027, or 2028...they're not worse anymore. They're now as good or better, for as cheap or cheaper. □For builders and companies and AI in general this is still amazing. It's still AI doing AI disruption things.But for the US economy it seems like it could be really bad. Especially for the model providers, since companies like NVIDIA and Cerberus and such can still be the chips that whatever…

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