Prediction markets

“Prediction markets” are a fancy term for legalized gambling. Nine years ago, Americans bet less than $5 billion on sports. Last year, that number rose to at least $160 billion. Another way to internalize that statistic – $5 billion is roughly the amount Americans spend annually at coin-operated laundromats (source) and $160 billion is nearly what Americans spent last year on domestic airline tickets (source). So, in a decade, the online sports gambling industry will have risen from the level of coin laundromats to rival the entire airline industry. Derek Thompson shared a couple of stories with the premise that we haven’t seen the worst of this – with chilling effect. Baseball In November 2025, two pitchers for the Cleveland Guardians, Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, were charged in a conspiracy for “rigging pitches.” Frankly, I had never heard of rigged pitches before, but the federal indictment describes a scheme so simple that it’s a miracle that this sort of thing doesn’t happen…